A number of ASIC miners will turn off after halving bitcoin forever. Representatives of the Poolin pool figured out which devices will go offline and how much the hash rate of the first cryptocurrency will drop.
Poolin Vice President Alejandro de la Torre examined the bottom quartile of the total bitcoin hash (0 to 25 T/s) and divided it into intervals of two T/s. This quartile contains most devices with 16- and 10-nanometer chips.
The most popular miner of the last four years has been Bitmain’s Antminer S9. All of its versions fall in the range of 12-22 T/s, and the standard model generates 13.5 T/s. They are responsible for almost all of the computing power in the range of 12-14 T/s, which is 15-30% of the network’s hashrate.
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In the pool, it was calculated at what prices for electricity the miners of the lower quartile will remain profitable. The calculations took into account the bitcoin price of $7,000 and the current mining difficulty.
The marginal tariff for the most powerful devices from the lower quartile is 3.4 cents per kilowatt. Devices in the range of 0-10 T/s will remain profitable only with free electricity and no other costs.
In the range of 10-16 T/s at 3 cents per kilowatt, only the Antminer S9K will survive. This range is 46% hash in the lower quartile. Most devices require a rate of no higher than 2 cents per kilowatt. And even if they survive, de la Torre emphasized, the increase in complexity will eventually force them to leave to go offline.
In the range of 16-26 T/s, the chances of surviving a halving and maintaining profitability are higher in the short term. Devices are suitable tariffs of 3-3.5 cents per kilowatt.
Poolin expects less than 15% of the hashrate from the lower quartile after halving. The situation for these devices can be worsened by recalculation of complexity in anticipation of halving. The indicator is expected to rise.
De la Torre added that the new 5-nanometer devices will remain profitable over the next four years as the industry has come to the limit of Moore’s law.
Halving will take place at block #630,000. It should be mined on May 12, if an abnormal production acceleration does not introduce adjustments.