Trump Leads in Swing State, Harris Gains Democratic Support

A new poll from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) shows former President Donald Trump with a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the key swing state of Arizona, less than three months ahead of the 2024 election. However, while there are positives for Trump in this poll, it's not all good news for him. The same poll reveals that Harris is showing strength among certain key voter groups.

Since officially becoming the Democratic Party nominee in the presidential race, Harris has led Trump in many 2024 election polls and gained significant momentum. According to NPI data reported by the New York Post, Trump holds a slight edge over Harris at 47% to her 44% in Arizona—an advantage he also had back in May when he was pitted against President Joe Biden.

However, circumstances appear different now as independent voters, along with Latinos and young voters, have shown increased support for Harris and her party. In fact, among Independent voters alone, she leads by five points, whereas previously Trump held a ten-point lead over Biden within this group.

Furthermore, for younger voters aged between 18 and 34  who form another crucial voting demographic bloc, Harris has managed to erase a previous two-point lead that Trump had over Biden, instead leading him now by eleven points herself.

"Almost every poll is somewhere between Harris+5 and Trump+5," said David Blyer, NPI Chief of Research. "That suggests an almost tied race."

On issues such as immigration, inflation, taxes,and gun policy, Trump seems favored, but on critical matters like abortion rights, climate change, education policies, and healthcare, voters view Harris more favorably.

The emergence of these results becomes even more important considering how volatile recent polling trends have been since Biden stepped out of contention for reelection, leaving his vice president as his party’s nominee. Additionally, the suspension campaign by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. further complicates things, potentially shifting the balance of power with undecided voters or those who were going to favor another candidate now having to choose between Harris and Trump.

The upcoming months will be crucial in determining how this race evolves. An interview with Kamala Harris on CNN scheduled for August 29, along with a presidential debate slated for September 10, could significantly alter the current polling landscape.

"The real question—the one that no one knows the answer to—is how Harris fares under scrutiny," said Mike Noble, NPI founder and CEO.

Arizona has traditionally been viewed as a swing state; its electoral votes can tip an election either way. The state, which carries 11 electoral votes, voted Republican in ten out of twelve previous elections since 1976, according to data from 270towin.com. Biden won Arizona in his successful bid for the presidency against Trump back in 2020, a departure from tradition where it was won by Trump himself during his victorious campaign against Hillary Clinton four years prior.