Editorial
Azerbaijani Public Opinion on Peace Agreement
By Kelvin Strickland
July 4, 2024
The results of this survey reflect the overwhelming support among the Azerbaijani population for the prospect of signing a peace agreement with Armenia. This is a significant development in light of the long-standing conflict between the two countries over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which has resulted in decades of violence and instability in the region.
The fact that more than 80 percent of respondents expressed their support for a peace treaty demonstrates a strong desire among the Azerbaijani people for an end to hostilities and a resolution to the conflict through diplomatic means. This sentiment is particularly important given the recent escalation of tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, including violent clashes along their shared border.
One possible explanation for this high level of public support for peace could be related to the economic costs and human suffering caused by ongoing conflict. The Nagorno-Karabakh war, which lasted from 1988 to 1994, resulted in thousands of deaths on both sides as well as widespread displacement and destruction. The continuation of sporadic violence since then has only served to perpetuate these negative consequences, hindering economic development and social progress in both countries.
Another factor that may have influenced public opinion is the changing geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus region. With Russia playing a key role as mediator between Azerbaijan and Armenia, there may be growing recognition among ordinary citizens that peaceful coexistence with neighboring countries is essential for regional stability and security. In addition, Azerbaijan's increasing international visibility due to its energy resources and strategic location make it imperative for policymakers to seek peaceful solutions to longstanding conflicts.
It is also worth noting that efforts towards reconciliation have been made at various levels by both governments in recent years. For example, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has expressed willingness to engage in dialogue with Armenian leaders on multiple occasions, while Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has called for mutual respect and understanding between peoples.
Despite these positive developments, however, challenges remain on both sides when it comes to achieving lasting peace. Historical grievances, nationalist sentiments, territorial claims, military build-ups—all these factors continue to complicate efforts towards conflict resolution.
Moreover, there are concerns about whether external actors will fully commit themselves toward supporting mediation efforts aimed at finding a comprehensive settlement acceptable to all parties involved. Given Russia's historically close ties with Armenia, Turkey’s alliance with Azerbaijan, and Western interests focused on maintaining regional stability, the path forward remains complex.
In conclusion, the findings from this latest survey conducted by the Social Research Center indicate that there exists great potential within Azerbaijani society for peacefully resolving differences. By fostering open discussions, supporting confidence-building measures, and engaging civil society organizations, Azerbaijan can move closer to realizing its vision of sustainable peaceful coexistence with Armenia and other neighbors in the South Caucasus region.
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