Can Robusta Rescue Morning Coffee Amid Arabica's Decline?

Coffee is a cherished morning ritual for millions, with global consumption exceeding 2.2 billion cups daily. However, the future of coffee, particularly the favored Arabica variety, hangs in balance due to climate change. 
 
A study from the University of Florida spearheaded by Felipe Ferrao delves into potential solutions that over 100 million farmers producing coffee worldwide could implement to safeguard their livelihoods and continue supplying this beloved brew. The options include breeding more resilient Arabica strains capable of better handling droughts and higher ambient temperatures. 
 
However, it's likely that Arabica will relinquish its current dominant position in favor of Robusta (also known as Conilon), which exhibits greater adaptability. In a few decades' time, most coffee brewed globally may be Robusta. 
 
"Given that about 60% of coffee beans traded globally are Coffea arabica today, the coffee industry is seeking alternatives," stated Ferrao. "This is where Robusta emerges as a promising candidate." 
 
Ferrao adds: "Robusta produces more than Arabica using fewer resources like fertilizer and water—living up to its robust name." He notes that while demand for Robusta probably won't dwindle, meeting quality and productivity demands presents a significant challenge; genetics and breeding studies can offer essential insights into diversity factors influencing quality. 
 
Arabica beans have gained notoriety for their nuanced flavors and aromatic qualities; enthusiasts relish their smoother taste, often laced with hints of fruits or nuts. But being suited to cooler climates at altitudes between 2000 and 6,000 feet makes it susceptible to environmental changes, including diseases and pests, necessitating extra care and escalating production costs. 
 
On the other hand, robusta thrives under diverse conditions, tolerating lower altitudes and hotter climates while also proving resistant to diseases and pests, requiring less input and yielding more produce at lower production costs while offering stronger bitter tastes described as earthy or woody and having a higher caffeine content. 
 
Arabica, owing to its superior flavor profile, is often reserved for premium blends and specialty coffees. Robusta's resilience and cost-effectiveness make it a staple in instant coffee and espresso blends, where its stronger flavor is appreciated. 
 
Currently, Arabica dominates the market, accounting for approximately 60% of global coffee sales. However, studies project that by 2050, climate change will reduce Arabica production by about 80%, with demand expected to triple concurrently. 
 
In recent decades, Robusta has been gaining ground, narrowing the gap as production surged roughly by 30%. 
 
The new research evaluated both Robusta and Arabica across multiple traits in high-altitude regions over five years in Brazil. Findings showed Robusta not only adapts well to high altitudes but also delivers good yield and flavor. 
 
"Robusta exhibits flexibility due to its wide diversity, allowing the selection of different plants based on weather conditions," Ferrao noted. "Thus we can start addressing the question about future coffee—climate-smart coffee." 
 
Researchers posit that Robusta meets three critical criteria for future coffee cultivation: 
 
University of Florida scientists, encouraged by their findings, are now testing Robusta's potential locally by conducting trials at the Tropical Research & Education Center (TREC), among other locations, seeking insights into how varying soil properties, rainfall distribution, temperature, and weather events affect local coffee production quality.