Has Bitcoin's Price Adjustment Finished?

The caveat is that the rally leading to an all-time high (ATH) may come later than sooner, as suggested by historical data. 
 
Bitcoin experienced a 5.55% price crash between July 24 and 25, resulting in a swing low of approximately $63,378. Nonetheless, this downward trend was reversed during the New York session on Thursday when Bitcoin bounced back nearly 5%, currently trading around $67,000. This has led investors to question whether the Bitcoin correction phase has ended. 
 
The significant drop in Bitcoin's value by 23% between June 8 and July 5 can be traced back to Germany's government selling almost 50,000 BTC. The German government-owned wallet now reportedly holds no BTC, according to data intelligence platform Arkham. Despite such a massive correction move, Bitcoin displayed resilience and quickly rebounded with a remarkable rally of about 28% from its bottom at $53,329 on July 5th. As it hovers around the $67k level now, speculations are rife among investors regarding another potential BTC crash. 
 
To assess if more corrections are due for the BTC price or not, let’s delve into analyzing supply overhangs related to BTC, referring to situations where entities hold surplus supplies of an asset ready for sale but have not actively traded yet. 
 
Three major cases of supply overhang have been identified concerning Bitcoin lately: first, Germany’s government unloading their stash amounting to roughly fifty thousand bitcoins; second, the Mt. Gox wallet holding onto eighty thousand bitcoins, down from one hundred sixty-seven thousand since March last year; and third, FTX creditors expecting cash inflow worth sixteen billion dollars, possibly through crypto tokens, towards the end of 2024 or early 2025. 
 
So far, neither deposits made toward Mt. Gox creditors' accounts held with BitStamp nor Kraken exchanges have sparked any panic selling spree, despite concerns raised by investors regarding substantial supply overhangs. CryptoQuant data further reveals no significant surge in spot trading volumes for BitStamp, while Kraken actually recorded outflows, indicating that Mt. Gox investors are not keen on selling at the moment. If they continue to show bullish sentiment and abstain from unloading their Bitcoin holdings, then it's highly unlikely for Bitcoin’s supply overhang to trigger any major price correction. 
 
Furthermore, K33 Research analysts Anders Helseth and Vetle Lunde believe that FTX’s BTC supply overhang is a bullish sign as well. 
 
Eliminating these three key Bitcoin supply overhangs could potentially propel Bitcoin towards setting a new ATH record soon. 
 
Historical data also suggests that the third quarter performance of Bitcoin has been the worst ever in the last fifteen years, with an average return rate of only 2.78%. However, this shouldn’t discourage investors since most underperforming months or quarters often present great opportunities to buy during lows. 
 
In addition, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, highlighted the longest ongoing consolidation phase observed so far below 2021’s ATH at the $69k level, where BTC spent five months consolidating underneath this peak point. Past trends indicate such breakout moves following protracted consolidation phases almost always result in exponential growth, eventually leading to new ATH records. 
 
Hence, based on the current forecast, although the correction phase might not be completely done yet, the overall outlook remains quite positive for BTC investors, who can anticipate its value to either consolidate or experience another dip around August-September before resuming its uptrend again by year-end.”