Forex & Crypto Forecast: Oct 14-18, 2024

Over the past week, four key events occurred that have significantly impacted markets around the globe. These events include the release of eurozone retail sales data, minutes from the September FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, US inflation data, and information on the Producer Price Index (PPI). 
 
On Monday, 7th October, August's retail sales statistics were released for the eurozone. The report showed a month-on-month growth rate of 0.2% and an annual growth rate of 0.8%, aligning closely with forecasts made by analysts surveyed by Reuters. 
 
Next came Wednesday’s release of minutes from September’s FOMC meeting at the US Federal Reserve. This detailed document provided insights into both economic situations and opinions regarding future monetary policies held by Committee members. Forecasts for US economic growth in 2024 were downgraded from 2.1% to 2%. However, estimates remained unchanged for expected economic growth in 2025 at a steady rate of 2%. 
 
Inflation forecasts also saw some adjustment; current-year predictions fell from an initial figure of 2.6% to a revised estimate of only 2.3%. Similarly, next year's forecast was lowered slightly from an original prediction of a rise in inflation rates to just over two percent. 
 
Significantly divided opinion is noted amongst Committee members when it comes to interest rate cuts' pace and magnitude; some believe it essential not to delay or insufficiently reduce rates due to potential risks posed towards labor markets, while others argue that excessive or rushed reductions could hinder progress against inflation. 
 
Thursday brought about another influential event: American consumer price reports revealed higher than anticipated figures for September but recorded yearly lows since February this year. 
 
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained consistent with previous months at a steady increase rate—despite predictions suggesting otherwise—rising annually by nearly two-and-a-half percent, which exceeded expectations yet still fell short compared with last month's value. Core inflation (Core CPI), however, rose to 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding both the forecast and expectations of 3.2%. 
 
This data reinforced investors' beliefs that another rate cut from the US Federal Reserve is imminent in November. 
 
The final event of this past week was Friday's release of Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, which showed a rise of 1.8% year-on-year in September—an increase on August’s figure and higher than market predictions. 
 
Even though producer price inflation surpassed forecasts, markets were largely unresponsive to these figures; as such, EUR/USD quotes remained at previous levels come end-of-week close. 
 
Looking ahead towards next week: Thursday will see eurozone consumer inflation data followed closely by a European Central Bank meeting—anticipated by some experts to result in yet another key interest rate reduction—while American retail sales and initial jobless claims are also due for release on the same day. 
 
In conclusion, four significant events occurred over last week that have attracted attention from global markets, including releases related to eurozone retail sales statistics, minutes from FOMC meetings at the US Fed, American consumer prices for September, and PPI information regarding September's producer prices index, respectively.